After the outburst of the rumour of Bola Ahmed Tinubu contesting for Presidency in 2023, there have been arguments and debates off and online over whether Tinubu has enough forces and has covered enough grounds already to be able to win a presidential election for himself after winning for somebody. Considering the wave of Nigerian politics from even before the surrendering of the Nigerian government by the colonizers to the indigenous Nigerians, it would be seen that the Northern part of Nigeria tends to dominate the Nigerian politics and government, the South-West is fairly present in the politics and government too, also, the South-South tries to be relevant in the government and politics while the East tends to be the most politically marginalized region in Nigeria. Where to focus on however is the effect this wave would have on whether Tinubu can be the president of Nigeria in 2023 or not.
If I say some way somehow, Tinubu made the winning of President Buhari possible in 2015, it may sound like I intend to ignore the political might of the North, their large political participation, and their ability to take to Aso Rock who they want to; that’s not what I’m doing. All these things are there, but somehow, Bola Tinubu was able to pull the strings that sprung Buhari into Presidency in 2015. Remember Buhari had contested a couple of times without winning before the time he won, which was the time he was in coalition with Bola Tinubu. This coalition was the change of everything! The same strings Tinubu pulled in 2015 will still be the strings he would pull again to get into the presidency—if truly he is contesting, and he would win before anyone realizes he was going to.
Apart from the fact that Tinubu—before becoming a godfather—had been in government than most politicians in Nigeria; talking about a double terms of four years each as a senator, a double terms of four years each as a governor. That’s at least 16 years of being an employed politician and his wife going near that record too as a senator. Apart from these advantages he has that only people like former President Olusegun Obasanjo could contend with, how the North has adopted Tinubu makes him have bigger hand than Obasanjo—even in the North where he is really accepted too; there are facts from the 2015 elections that show how locally powerful than Obasanjo Tinubu is now. Only the international powers Obasanjo has left that’s beyond what Tinubu can contend with ever. But no one can be the president of Nigeria or usher in who is to be the president of Nigeria without having identification with the North, because the North defines who becomes the president. So on whether Tinubu would win a presidential election or not, the answer is yes absolutely! But then, the time may not be 2023, considering the fact that—though PDP is no strong opposition anymore, but—there is desperation, and there is motivation in being desperate; being desperate helped APC take power from PDP, remember? That desperation, a strategic selection of candidates, and a wide promotion of the candidates could help PDP shine over APC in the 2023 presidential election. Lest I forget, PDP or any other party that would win over APC would have to have greater unconstitutional use of the armed forces in the elections than APC would, and that is almost impossible considering the fact that the current Chief of Army Staff is a member of APC. So congratulations to APC in advance for winning the 2023 election again, and all hail the almighty Tinubu for remaining the small god of Nigerian politics.